Predicting Oil Production Sites for Planning Road Infrastructure: Trip Generation Using SIR Epidemic Model

Drilling activity produces a significant amount of road traffic through unpaved and paved local roads. Because oil production is an important contributor to the economy in state North Dakota, transportation agencies make efforts support energy logistics expansion good repair maintenance infrastructure. As part this effort, it build new roads bridges, maintain existing pavement non-marked surface conditions, improve bridge other Therefore, purpose study review previous location prediction models propose novel geospatial model predict drilling locations which have impact on roads, verify provide better model. Then, proposes SIR (susceptible–infected–recovered) epidemic are generators. The simulation has been done historical data from 1980 2015. found that best fit parameters β (contact rate) μ (recovery were estimated by using dataset wells. can be applied proposed used assist with traffic, related issues, much needed predictive key planning design maintenance.